More than half of likely Utah voters oppose Constitutional Amendment B, according to a poll released Oct. 29 by Noble Predictive Insights.

The measure, which would require at least 60% voter approval for citizen-led initiatives that raise taxes, trails by 22 points. Fifty-six percent of likely voters said they would vote no, 34% said yes and 10% were unsure.

That marks a dramatic shift. In a Noble Predictive Insights poll conducted Sept. 8–12, half of voters supported the amendment and just 21% opposed it.

The amendment appears on Sandy ballots Tuesday, Nov. 3. Sandy Mayor Monica Zoltanski is among several Utah mayors who co-signed an Oct. 19 op-ed in the Deseret News urging a "no" vote. The op-ed argued the amendment would let 40% of voters block any revenue-raising initiative, "changing the majority threshold Utah has had for its entire history."

The opinions in the op-ed were identified as personal, not official statements on behalf of a government entity.

Opposition crosses party lines

Mike Noble, CEO and founder of Noble Predictive Insights, said the amendment faces resistance across the political spectrum. Democrats oppose it 82% to 11%. Independents oppose it 58% to 29%. Even among Republicans, opposition edges out support, 48% to 42%.

"Amendment B has a coalition problem," Noble said. "Democrats and Independents oppose it, and even Republicans are more likely to vote no than yes."

Millions spent on both sides

The Salt Lake Tribune reported that Utahns Protecting Our Constitution, the main group fighting the amendment, has spent more than $3 million on mailers, radio, television and social media ads. More than half of that money came from The Fairness Project, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit that does not disclose its donors, according to the Tribune.

The group said 80% of its donors are from Utah. Financial disclosures show 30 of the 36 donors to the opposition are from the state, though those in-state donors account for about one in five dollars raised, the Tribune reported.

On the other side, Americans for Prosperity spent about $100,000 supporting the amendment, according to the group's Utah director, Heather Andrews, as reported by the Tribune. Taxpayer Shield PAC, formed by the Utah Taxpayers Association, spent about $20,000.

Scott Cuthbertson, a spokesperson for the No on B campaign, told ABC4 that voters are changing their minds as they learn more about the measure.

Robert Axson, chairman of the Utah Republican Party, told ABC4 he is concerned the shift in voter sentiment came from out-of-state money.

What to know about the polls

The October poll surveyed 527 likely voters via text-to-online from Oct. 26–27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.27 percentage points. The September poll surveyed 602 registered voters via an online opt-in panel. The two polls used different methods and sampled different voter populations.

Ballots must reach county clerks by 8 p.m. on Nov. 3. Voters returning ballots by mail should use a drop box rather than the postal service at this point, according to ABC4.